Will there be a drought where I live?

If you live in north-west England or Yorkshire, you are already in an official state of drought, the Environment Agency says, and people living in other English regions could follow if the dry weather continues.

Those of us in eastern Scotland or parts of Wales are also seeing low water levels, according to water companies there.

Drought can affect different aspects of our lives and the environment. It can make it harder for farmers to grow crops, do harm to nature and mean you have to change how you use water.

So how is your area doing and how close are you to a drought? Here’s a look at what’s happening around the country, including our rain, rivers and reservoirs.

There is no single definition of drought or water scarcity – the measure in Scotland – but a long period of low rainfall is needed.

And it rained less than normal across almost all of the UK between March and May, the UK’s sixth driest spring since records began in 1836.

So there has been less moisture to top up our rivers, reservoirs and rocks below the ground.

If that lack of rainfall continues for a long time, it can strain the water supplies that serve our homes and businesses.

In June there was slightly more rainfall than average for the UK overall, but with a big difference between east and west.

Parts of Northern Ireland, western Scotland, Wales and south-west England saw wetter conditions than usual. But most of central and eastern England and Scotland saw dry weather continuing.

Long-term forecasts suggest drier than average conditions through much of July and possibly August too.

That would further increase the risk of drought.

Monitors in rivers show us how they are flowing. At the end of May these river flows were below normal for about three-quarters of monitored sites around the UK.

About one in five experienced “exceptionally low” flows.

Provisional June data doesn’t look much better.

River flows at the end of last month were about the same as – or even below – previous drought years of 1976, 2011, 2018 and 2022 for many eastern, central and southern regions, said Lucy Barker, hydrologist at the UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology.

Reservoirs are a crucial part of water supplies in northern England, Scotland and Wales.

At the end of May, England’s reservoirs were at their lowest combined levels for the time of year in records going back more than 30 years.

Reservoir levels in the North East and North West were exceptionally low – an important factor for drought being declared in Yorkshire and the North West.

The main reason for this is, of course, the lack of rain, but a small number reservoirs can be affected by other factors.

Normally at this time of year, Scottish reservoirs are 85% full. Last week they were at 79%, according to Scottish Water. They are even lower in eastern Scotland.

In Wales, most are around normal, although the reservoirs serving Mid and South Ceredigion in west Wales are below average, Welsh Water said.

Reservoir levels are about average in Northern Ireland, according to NI Water.

Much of south-east England relies more heavily on groundwater than reservoirs.

Groundwater originates as rainfall and is naturally stored beneath the surface in the pore spaces and fractures in rocks. Rocks that store lots of groundwater are called aquifers.

It accounts for a third of England’s water supply, though this is much higher in the south and east.

That is down to the UK’s varied geology, which affects how much water can be stored in the ground.

Water can flow more quickly through some rock types than others, sometimes taking years to respond to current conditions.

This is the case for parts of south and east England, which is why these regions are currently closer to normal.

These groundwater stores “respond more slowly to changes in the climate than rivers which is why they provide a useful buffer during periods of drought,” said Prof Alan MacDonald of the British Geological Survey.

It is why groundwater droughts in the South generally take a longer time to develop but can be longer-lasting if they do occur.

People and nature are already feeling the effects.

“It’s quite shocking that we are still only [in early] July,” Rachel Hallos, deputy director of the National Farmers’ Union, told BBC News.

“It’s like it’s the end of August when you look at the ground.”

With this little rain, farmers have had to get water onto their crops using irrigation.

That has made things more expensive for them and means there is even less water to go around.

There is widespread concern about the months ahead, Mrs Hallos added.

“What am I going to have to harvest? What am I going to have to feed my livestock over winter?”

And then there is the impact on wildlife.

A spokesman from the bird protection charity RSPB said that a big challenge has been making sure enough water is getting to key wetland habitats so that birds have safe places to nest.

“We need to be thinking about making our sites more resilient to climate change, as these periods of prolonged dry weather become the norm.”

And it’s not just water-loving birds that are having a hard time. Even in our gardens, common visitors like blackbirds can struggle to find worms and insects on our parched lawns, the RSPB says.

Droughts are complex phenomena, driven by a mix of natural and human causes.

The Met Office expects the UK to experience drier summers on average in future as the world warms, though there has been no clear trend so far.

But rising temperatures can play a more fundamental role by sapping moisture from the soil via evaporation.

“A warmer atmosphere is thirstier for moisture and this can mean water in the soil, rivers and reservoirs are depleted more effectively, leading to more rapidly onsetting droughts, heatwaves and wildfires,” said Richard Allan, professor of climate science at the University of Reading.

But there are other factors that determine whether dry conditions lead to water shortages, including how we use water.

As part of plans to address water shortages, the government is planning nine new reservoirs for England by 2050, in addition to one under construction at Havant Thicket in Hampshire.

But the Environment Agency has warned that measures to tackle water leaks and control water demand – potentially including hosepipe bans and more smart meters – may be needed in England too.

Water companies in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland also said they were taking steps to secure future supplies.

Additional reporting by Dan Wainwright and Christine Jeavans