What has been driving the rise in disability benefit claims?

The government has confirmed details of its scaled-back plan to reform health and disability benefits, following pressure from Labour MPs.

Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall said changes to Pip (Personal Independence Payment) would only apply to new claimants.

She also confirmed that payments to existing recipients of the health-related element of universal credit (formerly known as incapacity benefit) will no longer be frozen.

However, government analysis on the impact of welfare reforms that are still planned estimates that an extra 150,000 people will end up in “relative poverty” as a result.

BBC Verify looks at how many people claim these benefits and why there has been a significant increase in recent years.

In 2019, almost three million working-age adults (those aged 16 to 64) in England and Wales claimed either disability or incapacity benefit – 1 in 13 of the population.

As of March 2025, that had grown to about 4 million or 1 in 10 of the population, according to research from the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS).

This rise has been fuelled by claimants citing mental health conditions.

According to IFS data , the ‘mental and behavioural disorders’ category (which includes conditions such as ADHD) accounted for 44% of all claims in 2024 – up from around 39% in 2015.

IFS research also shows that 69% of new 25-year-old claimants were primarily living with mental and behavioural disorders, while this was the case for only 22% of new 55-year-old claimants.

Eligibility for Pip – a benefit that supports working-age disabled people with daily living costs – is determined through an assessment.

Under the current assessment system, claimants are scored on a zero to 12 scale by a health professional on everyday tasks such as washing, getting dressed and preparing food.

Before the Covid-19 pandemic, around three-quarters of these assessments were conducted face-to-face.

When in-person assessments were suspended during the pandemic – for obvious reasons – most were switched to telephone or video calls instead.

Although originally a temporary measure, these remote assessments have now become the norm.

Today, fewer than 10% of Pip assessments take place in person according to the government.

Some have suggested that the drop in face-to-face assessments may have encouraged more applicants to come forward as they would have avoided the potential stress of an in-person appointment.

However, analysts say there is not any substantive evidence to demonstrate that one way or another.

Louise Murphy, an economist at the Resolution Foundation, points out that approval rates for both face-to-face and remote assessments are largely unchanged since the pandemic.

“What has changed is way more people are claiming Pip – the government’s own figures show there are around 1,000 new awards made each day,” she says.

While there is some evidence that rising mental health conditions have contributed to the increase in Pip claims, independent researchers remain uncertain about the exact causes behind the upward trend.

Ms Murphy has identified one possible factor, the rising state pension age.

“The number of people classified as ‘working-age’ grows as the state pension age continues to increase”, she points out.

Under current rules, once someone reaches state pension age (currently 66 and due to rise to 67 by the end of 2028) they usually no longer qualify for Pip.

This rise in the state pension age means the working-age population is growing, putting more pressure on the system.

Ms Murphy believes it is responsible for about a fifth of the increase in health and disability-related benefit claims over the past decade.

Another possible factor, according to researchers, is that people’s understanding of the benefits system – and what they could be entitled to – may have improved during the pandemic and the cost of living crisis.

Eduin Latimer, an IFS senior research economist, agrees.

“There’s a lot of evidence that people claim health-related benefits in response to economic shocks”.

But while there are some plausible explanations for the rise in Pip claimants, Mr Latimer says “we don’t really know the answer”.

The government says it will carry out a wider review into Pip, to be carried out by Work and Pensions Minister Stephen Timms, which will report by next Autumn.

Originally, the government had expected its reforms to save around £5.5bn a year by 2030. However, following the concessions, that saving is now expected to be £2.5bn.

Even if the government had gone ahead with its initial reforms, the overall working-age welfare bill had still been set to rise to about £72.3bn in 2029-30.

The government has now revised its impact assessment of its plans and this suggests that about 150,000 more people will be left in relative poverty (after housing costs) by 2030.

This is down from the 250,000 people left in relative poverty in its original assessment.

The Prime Minister’s official spokesman said the modelling “doesn’t reflect the wider action we’re taking to lift people out of poverty and raise living standards, especially through work.”

The government says this includes £1bn of support measures to help disabled and long-term sick people back into work.