One of the biggest fan favorites in the UFC will hang up his gloves on Saturday night, but not before he tries to go out with one last victory. Dustin Poirier is set to retire after his clash with Max Holloway for the BMF championship, and he gets to do it in front of his New Orleans fans at UFC 318.
Poirier holds two previous wins over Holloway, but has never reached the same level of championship accomplishments as Holloway. Poirier has never held a full UFC title, having to settle for an interim lightweight title win against Holloway back in April 2019.
Poirier even came up short in his first bid for the BMF title when he was knocked out by Justin Gaethje. Holloway would take that belt off Gaethje with a brilliant performance at UFC 300, and now he and Poirier get to meet again, this time with a title that symbolizes what fans have thought of both men throughout their careers.
Dustin Poirier gets to walk off into the sunset as one of MMA’s rare good guys: ‘I’m just living my life’
Shakiel Mahjouri
With so much happening on Saturday night, let’s look closer at the full fight card with the latest odds before we get to our staff predictions and picks for the PPV portion of the festivities.
UFC 318 fight card, odds
- Max Holloway (c) -130 vs. Dustin Poirier +110, lightweights, “BMF” title
- Roman Kopylov -240 vs. Paulo Costa +200, middleweights
- Kevin Holland -450 vs. Daniel Rodriguez, welterweights
- Dan Ige -210 vs. Patricio Pitbull +175, featherweights
- Daniel Zellhuber -550 vs. Michael Johnson +400, lightweights
- Vinicius Oliveira -165 vs. Kyler Phillips +140, bantamweights
- Brendan Allen -205 vs. Marvin Vettori +170, middleweights
- Francisco Prado -140 vs. Nikolay Veretennikov +120, welterweights
- Ateba Gautier -550 vs. Robert Valentin +400, middleweights
- Islam Dulatov -600 vs. Adam Fugitt +430, welterweights
- Jimmy Crute -280 vs. Marcin Prachnio +230, light heavyweights
- Ryan Spann -220 vs. Lukasz Brzeski +180, light heavyweights
- Brunno Ferreira -700 vs. Jackson McVey +500, middleweights
- Carli Judice -300 vs. Nicolle Caliari +240, women’s flyweights
With such a massive main event on tap, the crew at CBS Sports went ahead with predictions and picks for the main card. Here are your pick makers: Brent Brookhouse (Combat sports writer), Brian Campbell (Combat sports writer), Shakiel Mahjouri (writer), Michael Mormile (producer) and Brandon Wise (senior editor).
UFC 318 picks, predictions
| Poirier vs. Holloway | Poirier | Holloway | Holloway | Holloway | Holloway |
| Costa vs. Kopylov | Costa | Costa | Kopylov | Kopylov | Kopylov |
| Holland vs. Rodriguez | Holland | Holland | Holland | Holland | Holland |
| Ige vs. Pitbull | Pitbull | Ige | Pitbull | Pitbull | Ige |
| Zellhuber vs. Johnson | Zellhuber | Zellhuber | Zellhuber | Zellhuber | Zellhuber |
Poirier vs. Holloway
Campbell: The 36-year-old Poirier has no shortage of motivation to author a storybook ending to his battle-tested UFC career, in his home state of Louisiana, no less. But even though he’s a slight betting underdog against the younger Holloway, who begins his first full-time run as a 155-pounder, Poirier has vowed to let it all hang out in his final fight and appears to have gotten himself in as good of shape as we have ever seen him. Poirier remains the bigger fighter and more natural lightweight. And the same thing that lifted him past Holloway in their 2019 rematch for the interim title — his edge in punching power — remains a major part of the equation in their trilogy. In about the most perfect setting for a career sendoff as UFC has ever facilitated, Poirier will have the crowd and the mental edge of having already defeated him twice. Not to mention, Holloway is fresh off of the first knockout loss of his career.
Brookhouse: I would certainly love to see Poirier end his story on a high, but that’s so rarely the case when it comes to prizefighting. Not to go full “MMA math” with the pick, but both men’s respective showings against Justin Gathje are key to where they stand at this moment in time. While Poirier was flattened by a brutal kick, Holloway outworked Gaethje before daring him to stand and trade, producing one of the most iconic moments in UFC history. Holloway’s pace and accuracy are still top-notch, and he just seems like he’s ready to finally get a win over Poirier.
Mahjouri: Holloway’s performance against Justin Gaethje was illuminating. This isn’t the same fighter Poirier big brothered in 2019. Holloway can fill out a lightweight frame while retaining the speed and movement that made him a remarkable featherweight champion. Yes, he’s coming off his first knockout loss, but I credit that more to Topuria’s power than Holloway’s deteriorating chin. It wouldn’t surprise me if Poirier sweeps the series, but something tells me Holloway is a touch sharper these days.
Costa vs. Kopylov
Campbell: The explosive former title challenger has been wildly inconsistent since his 2020 loss to Israel Adesanya and enters this co-main event showcase having lost four of his last five overall. So, while it’s understandable because of that to see Costa as the betting underdog against Kopylov, who enters having won six out of his last seven, it doesn’t tell the full story. At 34, Costa remains dangerous at all times and has fought well in each of his recent three decision losses. The biggest thing holding Costa back from the winning column has been his increasingly cavalier approach to his gameplanning. A natural counterpuncher, Costa focuses too much on swinging for the fences rather than winning rounds. But with the combination of him badly needing a win and Kopylov having not defeated elite competition throughout his recent streak, there’s enough confidence to suggest a big-time bounce back for Costa is in order. If his occasionally unhinged behavior at Wednesday’s final press conference is any indication, as Costa spoke more about his current beef outside the cage with Khamzat Chimaev than the threat of Kopylov, it shows that the wildcard Costa is motivated to defend his spot in the title picture.
Mahjouri: Kopylov’s game is evolving. The striking phenom developed his grappling after losing to Anthony Hernandez. That’s enough to win me over against Costa. “Borrachinha” is a talented striker, but his commitment to fighting is questionable. Costa has experience, though it’s worth noting he hasn’t beaten someone under 38 years old since 2018. Kopylov’s striking, recent improvements and relative youth are the difference makers.
Holland vs. Rodriguez
Campbell: Entering his fourth fight of 2025 (with announced ambitions to finish with seven) and his second in the last 42 days, Holland remains on pace to be remembered as the Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone of the era immediately after the UFC Hall of Famer’s came to a close. If it were up to Holland, he would fight every weekend to support a lifestyle he has referred to as expensive. And while Holland has made ill-advised decisions in the past to accept difficult middleweight bouts on short notice regardless of how it might stunt his current streak as a fringe title contender at welterweight. Luckily for Holland, he’s entering his third straight fight at 170 pounds and is riding a two-fight win streak with a renewed sense of swagger. Even if Holland doesn’t ever shake his “Cowboy” ways, at 32, he remains a difficult out for anybody in the division. Rodriguez, at 38, is riding a two-fight win streak of his own but isn’t nearly as fresh as Holland in his current form. This one should be fun and competitive with a Holland stoppage win not out of the question.
Mahjouri: Holland hasn’t looked this serious since knocking out Ronaldo Souza in 2020. Credit that to his committed welterweight campaign after consecutive wins against Vicente Luque and Gunnar Nelson. Rodriguez is another once-touted contender in rebuild mode. “D-Rod” is a dogged striker, but lacks the well-roundedness to manage Holland’s various threats. Give me Holland by KO or submission.
Who wins UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3, and how exactly does the fight end? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks and analysis from the incomparable expert who is up over $21,000 on his UFC picks since May 19, 2018, and find out.