Political reporter
BBC News, South East

Nearly 20,000 people arrived in the UK in the first half of this year by crossing the English Channel in small boats – up 48% on the first six months of 2024.
Just under 1,500 people have crossed since Sunday, taking the total until the end of June to 19,982, according to latest Home Office figures.
The figure for the first six months of this year is also 75% higher than the equivalent figure for 2023, which was 11,433.
The Conservatives said the government “broken a new national record – for failure”.
Ministers have previously pointed to clear weather and the willingness of people smugglers to put more people onto boats as factors driving the spike in migration crossings.
Since coming to power in July last year, Labour has announced a series of measures to tackle people smuggling, including a new criminal offence of endangering the lives of others at sea.
Legislation going through Parliament sets out plans to use counter-terror powers against people smugglers – with suspects facing travel bans, social-media blackouts and phone restrictions.
But the latest figures show 2025 has already set a new record for small boat arrivals in the first six months of the year, since the data was first collected in 2018.
In 2024, Home Office figures recorded 13,489 people arriving in the UK via small boats in the first half of the year. In 2023, the figure was 11,433 – which was slightly lower than the 12,747 recorded the year before.
Tackling small boat crossings will be a key point of discussion when French President Emmanuel Macron visits the UK later this week, after Downing Street said last month the situation in the English Channel was “deteriorating.”
The French authorities are considering allowing the police or coastguard to intervene in shallow waters to try to stop so-called taxi boats which pick migrants up from the beaches.
In addition, London and Paris have reportedly been negotiating a deal under which the UK could return some Channel migrants to France, in exchange for accepting asylum seekers from France seeking family reunion in Britain.
On Monday the European Commission, the executive arm of EU, announced it had been in contact with the UK government to “seek clarity” on the deal, after five member states criticised the proposals.
Italy, Spain, Greece, Malta and Cyprus warned in a letter seen by the Financial Times that the deal could see people deported from the UK to their countries.
A Commission spokesperson said the rising number of Channel migrants was “alarming” – but it would only accept “solutions that are compatible with the spirit and letter of EU law”.
Shadow home secretary Chris Philp blamed the increase on Labour “tearing up” the previous Conservative government’s plan to deport some asylum seekers to Rwanda shortly after it took office.
Philp said: “This is the worst year on record, and it’s become a free-for-all.
“We need a removals deterrent so every single illegal immigrant who arrives is removed to a location outside Europe. The crossings will then rapidly stop.”
A Home Office spokesperson said the “government has put together a serious plan to take down these networks at every stage”.
‘Red days’
This morning near Dunkirk, the BBC witnessed a boat carrying around 20 migrants making its way to the beach to pick more people. But it developed engine trouble and started drifting.
The police got the people off the boat, but they were allowed to head back into town without being questioned about what had happened.
Officers did however slash the dinghy to make sure it could not be used in another crossing attempt.
Several boats have launched from other beaches and waterways along the coast of northern France.
The number of crossings can vary according to factors like the weather and the supply of boat parts.
Last month, the Home Office released figures showing that the number of “red days” – when conditions are considered favourable for small boat crossings – peaked in 2024-25.
But Dr Madeleine Sumption, head of Oxford University’s Migration Observatory, said there was “no evidence to suggest that the weather is a major factor explaining long-term increases in small boat arrivals.
“The data published today suggest that over long periods of a year, the number of crossings seems to be broadly unrelated to the number of ‘red’ days.
“Other factors, such as the number of people wanting to reach the UK and the number and professionalisation of smuggling gangs are likely to be more important,” she added.
