Number 10 is preparing to offer concessions to Labour MPs amid a major rebellion over the government’s planned welfare cuts.
Downing Street is understood to be considering watering down changes to the eligibility for disability benefits which had been significantly tightened by the reforms in the bill.
More than 120 MPs are poised to rebel against the government next Tuesday and there remains division at the top of government over how to stem the growing anger.
Concessions under consideration include changes to the points needed for eligibility for personal independence payments (Pip), a benefit paid to those both in and out of work.
MPs also want to see changes made to other reforms affecting the health top-up for universal credit which applies to those who cannot work.
The prime minister’s chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney, has been having one-on-one talks with senior rebels. A number of cabinet ministers are now said to believe the bill has no chance of passing in its current form, though some are still being deployed to speak to angry MPs in an attempt to win them over.
Keir Starmer is expected to begin speaking to MPs directly after returning from the Nato summit on Wednesday evening.
The prime minister fuelled further anger within the party after he appeared to shrug off mounting Labour unrest over the proposed reforms, dismissing the backlash as “noises off” and insisting his party remains “pretty united” behind the need for change.
Starmer is facing the biggest revolt of his premiership over the welfare reform bill, which would make it harder for people to access Pip, the main disability benefit.
Labour whips admitted privately they were having no success convincing MPs to withdraw their names from an amendment which would effectively kill the welfare bill next Tuesday.
The rebellion is being led by select committee chairs including the Treasury select committee chair Meg Hillier and many previously loyalist Labour MPs concerned about the scale of the disability cuts.
At least two more MPs were expected to sign the reasoned amendment overnight – making it at least 126 rebel Labour MPs by Thursday morning.
Just one MP has withdrawn their name, despite significant pressure from whips and cabinet ministers. The chair of the environmental audit select committee Toby Perkins, a former shadow minister, is among the latest to sign the amendment.
Both Starmer and the deputy prime minister, Angela Rayner, have insisted the vote will go ahead. The chancellor, Rachel Reeves, is understood to be particularly opposed to pulling the vote.
Sources said there was a considerable difference of opinion within government. “There is a camp for pulling it, a camp for concession and a small but insane camp for ploughing on,” one said, suggesting Reeves was in the latter camp.
Starmer is expected to begin speaking to MPs himself on Thursday when he returns from the Nato summit. But ministers and MPs have told the Guardian they do not believe the government has the option to press ahead with the bill in the face of such unrest.
One frontbench source said: “I don’t believe there is a way to win this vote without offering a concession that can peel away a big chunk of those rebels.”
Chief whip Alan Campbell has been telling MPs the government needs to “ameliorate” the situation. “That’s not going to be enough,” one rebel said.
MPs have said they expect ministers and other frontbenchers to resign if no changes are made.
One said: “The PM’s determination to push ahead has gone down like a cold cup of sick. The [frontbenchers] who were hoping that today [Wednesday] would see some kind of concession are now being put in a difficult position by him – and the whips know about some of them.”
One senior government source said concessions would be presented to MPs by Friday at the latest, in order to give the PM time to consider them and then to give MPs time to reflect on them over the weekend.
Speaking at the Nato summit in The Hague, Starmer rejected suggestions he lacked political instinct, pointing to Labour’s landslide election win as proof of his judgment.
Asked if he had failed to read the mood of his MPs on welfare, he said critics had made similar predictions before and had been proved wrong.
“I’m comfortable reading the room and delivering the change the country needs,” he said.
“We’ve got a strong Labour government with a huge majority to deliver on our manifesto commitments. And that’s the work that we did over many years to win the election.
“Now we start the work over many years to change the country. Having changed the party, we now change the country.
“And is it tough going? Are there plenty of people and noises off? Yes, of course, there always are, there always have been, there always will be. But the important thing is to focus on the change that we want to bring about.”
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Rayner said in the Commons the government would press ahead with a Commons vote on the bill next Tuesday.
But she later hinted the government would be willing to make concessions to encourage Labour rebels to remove their names from the amendment, telling ITV’s Peston show on Wednesday evening that “those discussions are ongoing”.
In the meantime, cabinet ministers continued their attempts to win over rebels, with Reeves making a rare appearance on the Commons terrace to try to persuade wavering MPs.
“She doesn’t want to be £5bn out of pocket,” one MP said, referring to the savings that the cuts are intended to make.
MPs from opposition parties including the Greens, Plaid Cymru and the SNP have also now signed the amendment, as well as all the Northern Irish parties, including the DUP.
This increases the likelihood of the Commons speaker, Lindsay Hoyle, picking it for a vote on Tuesday, as it could be classed as an opposition amendment. If they are joined by the Liberal Democrats, it further increases the likelihood of selection.
But MPs say the intention of the amendment was to demonstrate the breadth of opposition to the bill – and that it should be taken as an indication of those prepared to vote against the government on the entire bill.
It is so far unclear whether the Tories would abstain, as the government views their conditions for backing the bill as undeliverable. They have asked for an undertaking from Starmer that the bill will reduce the welfare budget, get people into work and not necessitate a rise in taxes.
At his press conference, Starmer defended the proposals as necessary to build a “fairer and more efficient” system and said they were squarely in line with Labour’s manifesto mandate.
He said Labour was the best party to reform welfare. “The argument I would make is that it is a Labour government that should reform welfare,” he said.
“If the welfare system isn’t working for those that need it, and it is not, it’s a Labour government that should make it work for the future.
“Just as it was a Labour government that created the welfare system, it falls to this Labour government to make sure we’ve got a welfare system that’s sustainable for the future to come.
“We created the health service, and now we have to ensure that it’s fit for the future. Same with welfare. That is a progressive argument, that is a Labour argument, and it’s the right argument to make.”