An intriguing MLB trade deadline possibility has bubbled up as Thursday draws near: a Carlos Correa reunion with the Houston Astros. The Astros, presently perched atop the American League West standings and in the mix for best record in the AL, have dealt with a number of major injuries this season. One of the most notable is the hamstring strain suffered by All-Star third baseman Isaac Paredes back on July 19.
He’s been on the injured list ever since, and there’s increasing concern that the injury could necessitate season-ending surgery. That, of course, would be a major blow to the Astros’ hopes, as Paredes this season has slashed .259/.359/.470 (130 OPS+) with 19 home runs and 49 walks in 94 games.
That’s left the Astros eyeing infield help leading up to the deadline. Diamondbacks slugging third baseman Eugenio Suárez remains the prize, but competition for his services could be heated. Nolan Arenado is another possibility for Houston. However, a possible offseason swap for Arenado was snuffed out when he wielded his no-trade clause. That was because Arenado, after Houston traded away Kyle Tucker and let Alex Bregman walk, didn’t view the Astros as sure contenders. Now that they are, will Arenado’s mind change?
Those unknowns have placed the tantalizing prospect of Correa’s return to Houston within the range of possibilities. The potential reunion was first reported by USA Today. MLB.com has since confirmed.
Correa was originally drafted by the Astros with the No. 1 overall pick back in 2012, and he made his MLB debut in 2015 as a 20-year-old and one of the top prospects in the game. Correa lived up to the hype across his seven seasons in Houston, as he authored a WAR of 34.0 over that span and put up big numbers during the club’s annual forays into October and November. After a 2021 campaign in which Correa led the AL in WAR, the Astros let him walk. Correa initially reached agreement with the Giants on a $350 million free-agent contract, but his introductory press conference in San Francisco never happened thanks to what the Giants saw as concerning results from his physical. Correa quickly pivoted to a $315 million agreement with the Mets. However, that deal, too, came undone based on Correa’s physical. In the end, Correa landed with the Twins on a six-year, $200 million contract.
That brings us to the current moment. The Twins are five games below .500, buried in the AL Central standings, and 5 ½ games out of the final AL wild card spot (and behind six teams in that chase). That’s positioned them as deadline sellers, and that’s why Correa’s name is being bandied about.
This season, Correa hasn’t lived up to his typical standards. In 93 games for Minnesota, he’s slashed .267/.319/.386, which comes to a 93 OPS+ (or a park-adjusted OPS that’s 7% worse than the league-average mark). Coming into 2025, he had a career OPS+ of 126. Look at his batted-ball indicators, though, and you’ll find that Correa has deserved a better fate this season. The Astros may be betting that he’ll find his level in the weeks to come. Correa last season was highly productive when healthy, so it’s not a clear pattern of decline in place.
Of note is that the Astros have an All-Star shortstop in the fold. Jeremy Peña has a 140 OPS+ on the season, and he pairs that with excellent defense and plus base-running. Correa isn’t going to dislodge him, and the Astros are presumably looking at Correa as a replacement for Paredes at third base. The reality, though, is that Correa has never played third base as a professional — he’s a shortstop lifer. To be sure, shortstop to third base isn’t typically the most challenging of transitions, but doing so in the middle of a season after 14 years as an exclusive shortstop could present some difficulties. (On the other hand, the advanced metrics suggest it’s probably time for Correa to shift to a less premium position.)
On the matter of Correa’s contract, it’s a notable one, and any such trade would almost certainly require Minnesota to kick in cash. He’s owed the balance of a $37,333,333 salary for 2025, and then he’s under contract for a total of $96 million for 2026, 2027, and 2028. Correa’s pact also includes team options for 2029 ($25 million), 2030 ($20 million), 2031 ($15 million), and 2032 ($10 million). Those options vest if Correa meets various thresholds for plate appearances or awards voting in the prior seasons. Bake in the possibility that Correa is experiencing early decline and take into account his chronic plantar fasciitis problems, and there’s risk in assuming that kind of commitment. That’s the case even if a Correa return to Houston is a headline-grabber that would no doubt put a charge into the fan base.
As well, Correa’s Twins contract includes full no-trade protection, so he’d need to sign off on any deal. That gives him the leverage to, say, insist those club options be exercised in advance before granting his approval. A return to where he began his career has theoretical appeal, no doubt, but that’s not the only motivation in play.
All that said, the Astros have a clear need, and they may not be well positioned to pay the going rates for Suárez. Throw in the Arenado uncertainties — and the fact that he also appears to be in a state of decline at the plate — and maybe Correa-to-Houston winds up being the surprise move of the deadline. We’ll know soon enough.