Are we in store for more “Emmy sweepers?”
With more than 25,000 voting members, the Television Academy is made up of 31 peer groups, each representing a specific field of expertise — actors, writers, editors, and so on. Of the many categories, only 15 are voted on by the entire membership. These include outstanding comedy, drama, limited or anthology series, television movie, talk series, variety special (live and pre-recorded), short form (comedy, drama, variety, nonfiction, or reality), hosted nonfiction series, structured and unstructured reality, reality competition, scripted variety and game show.
Unlike the Oscars, which allow all eligible members to vote in the final round, the Emmys restrict both nomination and winner selection to designated peer groups. That exclusivity shapes the voting landscape — and it explains the rise of a modern phenomenon: the Emmy sweep.
Only once before 2020 had a series ever won all seven major categories (series, acting, writing, and directing): HBO’s “Angels in America” in 2004. Then came the COVID-era stunner: Pop TV’s “Schitt’s Creek,” in its final season, swept the board — an outcome few saw coming, given it had been nominated only once in its first five seasons and had never previously won.
Netflix followed suit in 2021 with “The Crown” Season 4, which also nabbed seven major wins. Since then, full sweeps have remained elusive, but the domination has continued.
The first season of HBO’s “The White Lotus,” technically a limited series at the time, won five of the seven categories it was eligible for — mostly due to skipping lead actor submissions. Then came the 2023 Emmys (held in January 2024 due to the WGA-SAG strikes), which saw the final season of HBO’s “Succession” win six of seven, falling only in supporting drama actress. Meanwhile, FX’s “The Bear” debuted by sweeping all six of its major categories — though it notably didn’t submit a lead comedy actress, with Ayo Edebiri winning instead in supporting.
Netflix’s “Beef” also took five of its seven major categories, losing only to Paul Walter Hauser (“Black Bird”) and Niecy Nash-Betts (“Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story”).
Fast forward nine months to the September 2024 ceremony: “Hacks” pulled off one of the biggest upsets in recent Emmy memory, taking comedy series over the heavily favored sophomore season of “The Bear.” That loss didn’t sting too badly for FX, though — “The Bear” still set a record with 10 wins, including five of six acting prizes. Only writing slipped away — to “Hacks” star Jean Smart and writing team Lucia Aniello, Paul W. Downs and Jen Statsky.
FX also dominated with “Shōgun,” which set a new high for drama wins, while Netflix’s “Baby Reindeer” landed five of its six.
In the age of near-sweeps, this trend has become a norm. And as a pundit who’s covered the Emmys for years, I’ll admit: it’s getting harder not to expect it. But should it be this way?
HBO/Max
If past is prologue, Apple TV+’s cerebral drama “Severance,” the high-concept satire “The Studio,” and the gritty British crime miniseries “Adolescence” are poised to be the next major sweepers.
It helps to be loved by the four largest branches of the Academy — Executives, Actors, Writers, and Editors. Series with strong support across these groups tend to fare well. And while executives only vote on series, it’s not unreasonable to assume many will back their own studio’s flagship.
HBO Max enters the race with a record-breaking 142 nominations, and three drama contenders: the sophomore season of the zombie hit “The Last of Us,” the buzzy medical series “The Pitt,” and the third outing of Mike White’s “The White Lotus.” Though “The Pitt” has the fewest noms of the three, it may have the clearest path to drama series gold.
Noah Wyle is in a tight battle with “Severance” lead Adam Scott, whose show scored a staggering 27 nominations. Supporting nominations like Katherine LaNasa, and nods in writing and directing, give “Severance” a robust toolkit, but can it go all the way with Wyle as the central figure?
Mike White’s dramedy isn’t going quietly. “The White Lotus” has writing heat for the “Full-Moon Party” episode — complete with Sam Rockwell’s show-stopping monologue — and strong contenders in Walton Goggins and Carrie Coon in supporting.
But “Severance” can still outpace it. Scott is a top-tier contender in lead drama actor, with co-stars Tramell Tillman and John Turturro able to take down any of their competition. A Tillman win would be historic as the first Black man to win the category, which would be a very worthy inaugural entry in the history books.
Kathy Bates as Matty Matlock.
CBS
In lead actress, Britt Lower may benefit from Kathy Bates being the only nomination from CBS’s “Matlock.” It’s been 20 years since someone won a lead acting Emmy as the sole nominee for their show — Patricia Arquette for “Medium” in 2005. It’s a steep hill, even for Bates, who made history as the oldest lead drama actress nominee ever.
Speaking of Arquette, she’s back in supporting for “Severance,” and with seven past nominations and another Emmy win for “The Act” in 2019, she’s Emmy royalty. With no co-stars to split the vote — unlike “The White Lotus,” which fields four women in the same category — she could cruise to another win, especially if “Severance” is winning elsewhere.
Then there’s “The Studio,” which tied “The Bear” for the most comedy nominations ever. “Hacks” dropped two key nominations, including Paul W. Downs in supporting actor, opening the door wide for “The Studio.”
Ike Barinholtz is in a tough supporting race with 83-year-old legend Harrison Ford (“Shrinking”), while writing could go to either “The Studio” or to the surprise player: Nathan Fielder’s “The Rehearsal,” which snagged four unexpected noms. When the writers go out of their way for a series, it can mean something significant. Look at “My Name is Earl” which in 2006 became the first and still series to win writing and directing, but fail to be nominated for comedy series. Could Fielder fly towards the same destination?
Then there’s “Adolescence” with 13 noms, going head-to-head with HBO Max’s “The Penguin,” which boasts a monster 24 nominations. Genre shows often struggle to convert nominations into major wins. For every “Watchmen” (which scored 11 wins from 26 noms), there’s a “WandaVision” (23 noms, three wins) or “The Mandalorian” the same year in drama series (24 noms, seven technical wins).
Still, “The Penguin” could buck that trend. Colin Farrell and Cristin Milioti are serious threats in lead acting. Stephen Graham, both co-creator and star, is a strong candidate, but will actors choose someone else while supporting the show in every other way? Owen Cooper and Erin Doherty are frontrunners in supporting, and the show looks likely to take writing and directing. A partial sweep feels realistic.
The road ahead is long, and momentum shifts fast. But if recent years are any indication, Emmy night 2025 may once again belong to just a handful of series, each hoping to run the table.
Winner predictions are below, and the Emmy charts will be updated over the coming days.
The 77th Emmy Awards will be hosted by Nate Bargatze and broadcast live Sunday, Sept. 14 at 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT on CBS, as well as stream live and on demand via select packages on Paramount+.
See all of Variety’s Award Predictions
Awards Circuit Predictions: Emmys
Drama Series:
“Severance” (Apple TV+)
Comedy Series:
“The Studio” (Apple TV+)
Limited Series:
“Adolescence” (Netflix)
TV Movie:
“Rebel Ridge” (Netflix)
Lead Drama Actor:
Noah Wyle, “The Pitt” (HBO Max)
Lead Comedy Actor:
Seth Rogen, “The Studio” (Apple TV+)
Lead Actor Limited:
Stephen Graham, “Adolescence” (Netflix)
Lead Drama Actress:
Britt Lower, “Severance” (Apple TV+)
Lead Comedy Actress:
Jean Smart, “Hacks” (HBO Max)
Lead Actress Limited:
Michelle Williams, “Dying for Sex” (FX)
Supporting Drama Actor:
Tramell Tillman, “Severance” (Apple TV+)
Supporting Comedy Actor:
Ike Barinholtz, “The Studio” (Apple TV+)
Supporting Actor Limited:
Owen Cooper, “Adolescence” (Netflix)
Supporting Drama Actress:
Patricia Arquette, “Severance” (Apple TV+)
Supporting Comedy Actress:
Catherine O’Hara, “The Studio” (Apple TV+)
Supporting Actress Limited:
Erin Doherty, “Adolescence” (Netflix)
Guest Drama Actor:
Shawn Hatosy, “The Pitt” (HBO Max)
Guest Drama Actress:
Kaitlyn Dever, “The Last of Us” (HBO Max)
Guest Comedy Actor:
Bryan Cranston, “The Studio” (Apple TV+)
Guest Comedy Actress:
Julianne Nicholson, “Hacks” (HBO Max)
Competition Program:
“The Traitors” (Peacock)
Structured Reality:
“Antiques Roadshow” (PBS)
Unstructured Reality:
“Love on the Spectrum” (Netflix)
Talk Series:
“The Daily Show” (Comedy Central)
Scripted Variety:
“Last Week Tonight with John Oliver” (HBO Max)
Variety Special Live:
“SNL50: The Anniversary Special” (NBC)
Variety Special Pre-Recorded:
“Adam Sandler: Love You” (Netflix)
Documentary Series:
“Social Studies” (FX)
Documentary Special:
“Will & Harper” (Netflix)
Hosted Nonfiction:
“Conan O’Brien Must Go” (HBO Max)
Exceptional Merit:
“I Am Celine Dion” (Prime Video)
Directing Drama:
Ben Stiller, “Severance” (Apple TV+)
Directing Comedy:
Seth Rogen and Evan Goldberg, “The Studio” (Apple TV+)
Directing Limited:
Philip Barantini, “Adolescence” (Netflix)
Directing Documentary:
Matt Wolf, “Pee-wee as Himself” (HBO Max)
Directing Variety Special:
Liz Patrick, “SNL50: The Anniversary Special” (NBC)
Directing Variety Series:
Paul Pennolino, “Last Week Tonight with John Oliver” (HBO Max)
Directing Reality:
Cian O’Clery, “Love on the Spectrum” (Netflix)
Writing Drama:
“The White Lotus” (HBO Max) – “Full-Moon Party” by Mike White
Writing Comedy:
“The Rehearsal” (HBO Max) – “Pilot’s Code” by Nathan Fielder
Writing Limited:
“Adolescence” (Netflix) – Series by Jack Thorne and Stephen Graham
Writing Variety Series:
“The Daily Show” (Comedy Central)
Writing Variety Special:
“Your Friend, Nate Bargatze” (Netflix)
Writing Nonfiction:
“Martha” (Netflix) by RJ Cutler
Game Show:
“Jeopardy” (ABC)
Game Show Host:
Jimmy Kimmel, “Who Wants to be a Millionaire” (ABC)
Reality Host:
Alan Cumming, “The Traitors” (Peacock)
Casting Drama:
“The Pitt” (HBO Max)
Casting Comedy:
“The Studio” (Apple TV+)
Casting Limited:
“Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story” (Netflix)
Casting Reality:
“Love on the Spectrum” (Netflix)
Animated Program:
“The Simpsons” (Fox)
Character Voiceover:
Alan Tudyk, “Andor” (Disney+)
Short Form Performer:
Tom Segura, “Bad Thoughts” (Netflix)
Production Contemporary One Hour:
“The Penguin” (HBO Max) – “Homecoming”
Production Period Fantasy One Hour:
“Andor” (Disney+) – “Who Are You?”
Production Narrative Half Hour:
“What We Do in the Shadows” (FX) – “Headhunting”
Production Variety/Reality:
“Saturday Night Live” (NBC) – “Host: Lady Gaga”
Production Variety Special:
“The Oscars” (ABC)
Cinematography Series Half-Hour:
“The Studio” (Apple TV+) – “The Oner”
Cinematography Series One Hour:
“Severance” (Apple TV+) – “Hello, Ms. Cobel”
Cinematography Limited:
“Adolescence” (Netflix) – “Episode 2”
Cinematography Nonfiction:
“100 Foot Wave” (HBO Max) – “Chapter III – Cortes Bank”
Cinematography Reality:
“Life Below Zero” (National Geographic) – Series Body of Work
Period Costumes:
“Bridgerton” (Netflix) – “Into the Light”
Fantasy/Sci-Fi Costumes:
“Agatha All Along” (Disney+) – “Follow Me My Friend”
Contemporary Costumes:
“The White Lotus” (HBO Max) – “Same Spirits, New Forms”
Contemporary Costumed Limited:
“The Penguin” (HBO Max) – “A Great or Little Thing”
Editing Drama:
“Andor” (Disney+) – “Who Are You?”
Editing Comedy:
“The Bear” (FX) – “Tomorrow”
Editing Limited:
“The Penguin” (HBO Max) – “A Great or Little Thing”
Editing Multi-Cam:
“Mid-Century Modern” (Hulu) – “Here’s to You, Mrs. Schneiderman”
Editing Variety Programming:
“Ali Wong: Single Lady” (Netflix)
Editing Variety Segment:
“SNL50: The Anniversary Special” (NBC) – Physical Comedy (segment)
Editing Nonfiction:
“Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story” (HBO Max)
Editing Reality:
“The Traitors” (Peacock) – “Let Battle Commence”
Editing Unstructured:
“Welcome to Wrexham” (FX) – “Down to the Wire”
Makeup Contemporary Non-Prosthetic:
“The Last of Us” (HBO Max) – “Day One”
Makeup Period Fantasy Non-Prosthetic:
“House of the Dragon” (HBO Max) – “The Red Dragon and the Gold”
Makeup Variety Nonfiction Reality:
“RuPaul’s Drag Race” (MTV) – “Bitch, I’m a Drag Queen”
Makeup Prosthetic:
“The Penguin” (HBO Max) – “After Hours”
Hairstyling Contemporary:
“Emily in Paris” (Netflix) – “Back on the Crazy Horse”
Hairstyling Period Fantasy:
“Bridgerton” (Netflix) – “Old Friends”
Hairstyling Variety Nonfiction Reality:
“The Boulet Brothers’ Dragula” (Shudder) – “Welcome to Hell”
Sound Mixing Comedy Drama One Hour:
“Severance” (Apple TV+) – “Cold Harbor”
Sound Mixing Limited:
“Adolescence” (Netflix) – “Episode 1”
Sound Mixing Comedy Drama Half-Hour:
“The Bear” (FX) – “Doors”
Sound Mixing Variety:
“SNL50: The Anniversary Special” (NBC)
Sound Mixing Nonfiction:
“Music by John Williams” (Disney+)
Sound Mixing Reality:
“Welcome to Wrexham” (FX) – “Down to the Wire”
Sound Editing Comedy Drama One Hour:
“The Last of Us” (HBO Max) – “Through the Valley”
Sound Editing Comedy Drama Half-Hour:
“The Righteous Gemstones” (HBO Max) – “Prelude”
Sound Editing Animated:
“Star Trek: Lower Decks” (Paramount+) – “The New Next Generation”
Sound Editing Limited:
“Black Mirror” (Netflix) – “USS Callister: Into Infinity”
Sound Editing Nonfiction:
“100 Foot Wave” (HBO Max) – “Chapter III – Cortes Bank”
Special Visual Effects Season:
“Andor” (Disney+)
Special Visual Effects Single Episode:
“The Penguin” (HBO Max) – “Bliss”
Music Composition Series:
“The Studio” (Apple TV+) — Antonio Sánchez
Music Composition Limited:
“The Penguin” (HBO Max) – Mick Giacchino
Music Composition Documentary:
“The Americas” (NBC) – Hans Zimmer, Anže Rozman, Kara Talve
Music Direction:
“The Apple Music Super Bowl LIX Halftime Show Starring Kendrick Lamar” (Fox)
Music and Lyrics:
“Agatha All Along” (Disney+) – “The Ballad of the Witches’ Road” by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez
Main Title Music:
“Dune: Prophecy” (HBO Max) – Volker Bertelmann
Short Form:
“Late Night with Seth Meyers: Corrections” (NBC)
Short Form Nonfiction:
“Adolescence: The Making Of Adolescence” (Netflix)
Stunt Comedy:
“Cobra Kai” (Netflix)
Stunt Drama:
“The Boys” (Prime Video)
Stunt Performance:
“FBI: Most Wanted” (CBS) – “Moving On”
Choreography Variety:
“Beyoncé Bowl” (Netflix)
Choreography Scripted:
“Étoile” (Prime Video)
Title Design:
“Severance” (Apple TV+)
Commercials:
“Batman Vs. Bateman – State Farm”
Narrator:
Barack Obama, “Our Oceans” (Netflix)
Emerging Media:
“SNL 50th: The Anniversary Special: Immersive Experience”
Technical Direction Series:
“The Voice” (NBC)
Technical Direction Special:
“The Lion King At The Hollywood Bowl” (Disney+)
Lighting Series:
“Dancing with the Stars” (ABC)
Lighting Special:
“SNL50: The Anniversary Special” (NBC)