When Ronald Acuna Jr. tore his ACL in May last season, it wasn’t only a significant loss for the Atlanta Braves. Baseball fans around the world lost the opportunity to see one of the most exciting players in the sport in the summer and fall. It didn’t take long for Acuna to show fans what they missed with a home run in his first two games after making his season debut on May 23. The Braves outfielder has eight home runs over 24 games for the best home run rate of his career, and just four players in all of baseball have homered more times since Acuna made his season debut on May 23. Thus, he’s one of SportsLine’s top picks to hit a home run on Friday for MLB home run picks for online sports betting.
Acuna hit his eighth home run of the season on Wednesday and at +340 odds on FanDuel Sportsbook, he’s a top play for MLB home run picks in MLB player props. You can use a FanDuel promo code to maximize your return as a new user as well. MLB home run props are available for almost every player in every game at various sportsbooks, and SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run picks on betting sites.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It’s up 28.85 units on its MLB HR picks during the last 73 days. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Fridays. You can find even more picks in their daily blog. You can also see top MLB player props from the model here.
Best MLB home run picks for Friday, June 20:
- Ronald Acuna Jr., Braves (+340)
- Jazz Chisholm Jr., Yankees (+390)
- Jose Ramirez, Guardians (+390)
- Parlay these picks for +10464 odds at FanDuel (odds subject to change)
Ronald Acuna Jr., Braves (+340)
Acuna smashed two home runs over his first two games of the season roughly a month ago and hasn’t slowed down much since with his eight home runs over 24 games. The 27-year-old’s metrics are nearly off-the-chart as well, ranking better than 90% of the sport in categories such as average exit velocity, barrel percentage, hard-hit percentage and bat speed. More than 58% of his balls put into play have been registered as hard hits as 12 months away from baseball didn’t hinder his performance at all. Acuna had 41 home runs in 2023 in his last full season.
“He’s been especially dominant against right-handed pitchers, hitting .433 with seven of his eight home runs coming against them,” SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner said. “Janson Junk has been in and out of the majors, but his career 1.4 HR/9 rate suggests he is somewhat susceptible to giving up homers. We set the line at +285 for Acuña to homer.” FanDuel is offering the best odds at +340, but if you already have a FanDuel account and are looking for a strong sign-up bonus, bet365 is offering this at +325 odds and the current bet365 bonus code offers new users $150 in bonus bets with a $5 wager, whether it wins or loses.
Jazz Chisholm Jr., Yankees (+390)
The Yankees remain in the Bronx to begin a three-game weekend series with the Orioles, and that’s great news for Chisholm’s home run potential. Fetner notes that Chisholm is hitting .307 with a 1.021 OPS and nine of his 10 home runs at home this season, compared to a .125 batting average with one home run on the road. The left-handed hitter has maximized the short porch in right field to his advantage as the perfect type of left-handed hitter for Yankee Stadium. Chisholm hit his 10th home run of the season on Wednesday heading into a matchup against Orioles RHP Tomoyuki Sugano, who has a 6.00 ERA over his last two starts.
“He’s also hit 9 of his 10 homers against right-handed pitchers,” Fetner said. “Sugano has been better against lefties than righties this season, but his slugging percentage allowed is nearly identical against both sides. We set the line at +355 for Jazz to homer, making +390 a solid value.” FanDuel is offering the best odds on this play as well, with the best way of making this play being via a FanDuel promo code.
Jose Ramirez, Guardians (+390)
Fetner is aware that Ramirez only has two home runs over the last two weeks, but he does have a home run in one of his six career at-bats against Athletics probable starter Jeffrey Springs. The left-handed pitcher has a 4.52 ERA this season and has allowed at least three runs in four of his last five starts. The switch-hitter has been potent against LHP this season as well with a .556 slugging percentage off southpaws.
“Ramírez’s consensus line is around +290, so you’re getting strong value at the +390 line on FanDuel,” Fetner said. “He has crushed left-handed pitchers this season, batting .389 with a .999 OPS, although he has just two home runs against them. The home run index being at a 9 out of 10 could play a role in him elevating a pitch today.”
Where to bet MLB props on Friday
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More MLB picks for Friday
You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for several players on Friday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Matt Severance, who is on a 165-89 roll (+1927) on baseball picks. SportsLine’s Angelo Nagliocca is also 5-1 (+302) over his last six MLB picks, and he already has locked in a pick for Friday.