Key events
Output from Germany’s manufacturing industry is likely to shrink in July, according to an early reading of the purchasing managers’ index (PMI).
The “flash” reading came in at 49.2 points, below the 50 points that indicates an expansion, but slightly above economists’ expectations of 49, according to data company S&P Global.
Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, which sponsors the survey, said:
The economic situation in the manufacturing sector remains fragile, as underscored by the headline PMI remaining below the 50 mark. However, the fact that production in this sector has now expanded for five months in a row is encouraging.
Given the sustained rise in export orders over the past four months, it is reasonable to anticipate a continued expansion in output. Against this backdrop, manufacturing companies have also slowed the pace of job cuts. Overall, we see increasing signs of a recovery in the manufacturing sector.
Business secretary Jonathan Reynolds has said he is “very concerned” about the UK’s car industry, after figures showing that output slumped to its lowest level since 1953 in the first half of 2025, aside from the coronavirus pandemic lockdown period.
UK vehicle manufacturing declined by 12% to 417,200 units in the first six months of the year, figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), a lobby group, show.
Reynolds told BBC Breakfast he was worried about the industry, which he described as the “jewel in the crown” of British manufacturing. He said, according to the PA news agency:
I’m very concerned about automotive, the pressures on the system which come from the US trade agenda, but also an incredible increase in capacity from China.
It’s why as a government we’ve adopted so many measures specifically around the automotive sector. So that’s everything from the industrial strategy, which reduces the energy costs for British automotive factories making vehicles – cars, vans and buses.
It’s also why we changed the regulation that we inherited from the previous government on the transition to electric vehicles, why we negotiated the automotive quota with the US – a key market for us in that regard – and also why we’ve just announced an incentive program for… electric vehicles made in the UK, which will bring the cost down for British consumers.
Mike Hawes, the SMMT’s chief executive, said that it was “one of the toughest periods for UK automotive”.
The FTSE 100 has gained a bit more momentum, up 0.6%.
Elsewhere on European markets, France’s Cac 40 is up 0.4%, but Germany’s Dax index has jumped by 1.1% and Spain’s top stocks on the Ibex are up 1.3%.
Shares in Germany’s Deutsche Bank rose by 6% on Thursday morning, driving that Dax rise. Reuters reported that the lender “returned to a better-than-expected profit in the second quarter from a year ago despite mixed results at its global investment banking division and a hit from the jump in the euro’s value.”
In Switzerland, Nestlé said it would do a strategic review of its vitamins business that could lead to the divestment of some brands, despite reporting “better-than-expected first-half organic sales growth on Thursday, Reuters reported.
ITV announces £35m cost cuts but Lioness football eases blow
Mark Sweney
ITV has announced another £35m in cost cuts after profits plummeted more than 40% in the first half, as the broadcaster struggled to match the advertising boom delivered by last year’s men’s European football championships.
The broadcaster said that pre-tax profits were down 44% year-on-year to £99m in the first six months, as total advertising revenues fell 7% to £824m.
ITV said that it struggled to match the “very strong” advertising period last year driven by the men’s Euros, which caused a 17% surge in ad revenue in the second quarter last year as England reached the tournament finals.
The broadcaster announced a further £15m in cost savings, taking the total for this year to £45m, which it said will come from a combination of new initiatives and annualised benefits from cuts made last year.
Separately, ITV also said that it was trimming programming budget by £20m, from £1.25bn to £1.23bn, “as we further optimise content spend to best reflect viewer dynamics”.
Looking ahead, ITV said that it expects total advertising revenue to be “marginally down” in the third quarter, again due to last year’s Euros.
However, the decline has been ameliorated by England’s nerve-racking and exhilarating run to make the finals of the women’s Euro 2025 tournament. ITV’s gamble by choosing to have the first pick of the semi-finals in pre-tournament negotiations with the BBC, which in return got live coverage of three of the four quarter finals, has paid off.
England’s European Championship semi-final win over Italy on Tuesday night delivered ITV’s highest viewing figures of the year.
A peak audience of 10.2m watched as England defeated Italy in the final minutes of extra time to set up a final against Spain, which beat Germany on Wednesday night.
The dramatic final – which ran for an advertising haul-friendly 120 minutes – was ITV’s highest average audience of the year among adults and 16 to 34 year olds. It also broke streaming records with ITVX recording its biggest day of the year with 17.2m stream views.
Carolyn McCall, chief executive of ITV, said:
ITV is now a leaner, more digital business in a strong position to compete and succeed in a changing market. We have the agility and capability to make the most of new revenue opportunities while driving profitable growth, strong cash generation and attractive returns to shareholders.
And we’re off on Europe’s stock markets. The FTSE 100 has gained 0.4% in the opening trades.
Lloyds Banking Group is up 0.9%, while HSBC has also gained 1%.
The biggest riser in the early moves is Airtel Africa, up 4.5% after the telecoms company reported growth in customer numbers, and a 30% increase in quarterly earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation.
Lloyds profits gain despite economic ‘deterioration’; Tesla has ‘rough quarters’ ahead
Britain’s largest high street bank, Lloyds Banking Group, has reported a 5% rise in profits even as it said that higher unemployment loomed over the UK economic outlook.
The lender said that statutory profit before tax was £3.5bn for the first half of 2025, 5% more than the same period last year. Revenues rose 6% year-on-year to £9.4bn.
Lloyds said its money set aside in case of economic turbulence “reflects a modest deterioration to the economic outlook in the second quarter, including a higher unemployment rate peak largely offset by further improvements to house price expectations.”
The bank said there had been no more charges relating to the motor finance commission scandal, for which it has set aside £1.2bn. The bank is one of the lenders most exposed to the scandal, with a supreme court ruling expected soon on whether they must pay billions of pounds in compensation for overcharging customers.
Charlie Nunn, Lloyds group chief executive, said:
We have shown sustained strength in our financial performance in the first half of 2025, with income growth, cost discipline and robust asset quality, driving strong capital generation and increased shareholder distributions, with a 15% increase in the interim ordinary dividend.
‘Rough quarters’ ahead for Tesla
Elon Musk has said that Tesla could face “a few rough quarters” after the administration of former ally Donald Trump targeted carbon emissions credits schemes that have been crucial to the electric carmaker’s profits.
The world’s richest man was by far Trump’s biggest donor during the presidential election campaign, but they have since fallen out spectacularly, and Musk has claimed he will start a new political party.
The falling out has meant that Trump has targeted electric vehicle subsidies, long a bugbear for the US president – and a crucial source of income for Tesla even as it hopes to start a bigger business providing driverless taxis.
Announcing a fall in revenues and profits last night, Musk said:
We probably could have a few rough quarters. I’m not saying we will, but we could – you know, Q4, Q1, maybe Q2, but once you get to autonomy at scale in the second half of next year, certainly by the end of next year, I think I’d be surprised if Tesla’s economics are not very compelling.
You can read more on the worse-than-expected sales here:
The agenda
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8:30am BST: Germany HCOB manufacturing purchasing managers’ index flash reading (July; previous: 49 points; consensus: 49.5)
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9am BST: Eurozone HCOB services PMI flash (July; previous: 50.5 points; consensus: 50.7)
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9am BST: Eurozone HCOB manufacturing PMI flash (July; previous: 49.5 points; consensus: 49.7)
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9:30am BST: UK S&P Global manufacturing PMI flash (July; previous: 47.7 points; consensus: 48)
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9:30am BST: UK S&P Global servives PMI flash (July; previous: 52.8 points; consensus: 53)
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1:15pm BST: European Central Bank interest rate decision (July; previous: 2.15%; consensus: unchanged)
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1:15pm BST: European Central Bank press conference