A decade after MPs voted to hold the referendum that led to Britain leaving the European Union, a poll has found majorities in the bloc’s four largest member states would support the UK rejoining – but not on the same terms it had before.
The YouGov survey of six western European countries, including the UK, also confirms that a clear majority of British voters now back the country rejoining the bloc – but only if it can keep the opt-outs it previously enjoyed.
The result, the pollster said, was a “public opinion impasse”, even if there seems precious little likelihood, for the time being, of the UK’s Labour government, which this year negotiated a “reset” with the bloc, attempting a return to the EU.
YouGov’s EuroTrack survey showed that at least half of people asked across the four largest EU nations – France, Germany, Italy and Spain – supported the UK being allowed to rejoin, with percentages ranging from 51% in Italy to 63% in Germany.
Asked whether Britain should be allowed back in on the same conditions it enjoyed when it left, including not having to adopt the euro currency and remaining outside the Schengen passport-free zone, the numbers changed significantly.
Only one-fifth of respondents across the four biggest EU members, from 19% in Italy and France to 21% in Spain and 22% in Germany, felt the UK should be allowed return as if it had never left, with 58-62% saying it must be part of all main EU policy areas.
The pollster stress-tested western European attitudes by asking whether, if the UK was only willing to rejoin the EU on condition it could keep its old opt-outs, it should be allowed to. Some (33-36%) felt this would be OK, but more (41-52%) were opposed.
In the UK, while 54% of Britons supported rejoining the EU when asked the question in isolation, the figure fell to just 36% if rejoining meant giving up previous opt-outs. On those terms, 45% of Britons opposed renewed membership.
The survey found that remain voters and those who backed more pro-EU parties would still broadly back rejoining if this meant adopting the euro and being part of the Schengen area, albeit at much lower rates.
Almost 60% of remain voters said they would support rejoining the EU without the previous opt-outs, down about 25 percentage points from the non-specific question, as would 58% of Labour voters (-23 points) and 49% of Liberal Democrats (-31 points).
after newsletter promotion
The percentage of Eurosceptic voters willing to rejoin without the previous special treatment more or less halved, falling from 21% to 10% among leave voters; 25% to 12% among Conservative voters, and 15% to 9% among Reform UK supporters.
The fifth continental European country polled, Denmark, proved an outlier. Respondents there were very keen (72%) for the UK to rejoin, and more enthusiastic than larger member states about it keeping its previous opt-outs (43%).
Denmark, however, is one of only three EU member states to hold opt-outs in major EU policy areas. The survey also found that large majorities in all five continental countries (63-75%) would support an independent Scotland joining the EU.